What Really Changed In Energy This Year
If 2025 had a headline, it was this: demand got loud, policy got weird, and the grid became the main character. Below are the stories that actually moved the chess pieces.
If you work in energy, 2025 felt like the year the map got redrawn while you were already on patrol.
Forecasts that were flat for a decade suddenly spiked. Policy flipped, then flipped again. States blew past clean power milestones while the federal government tried to slam the brakes on renewables and then got checked by the courts.
Underneath all the noise, a handful of stories actually moved the ball for reliability, affordability, and American strength. This is a tactical brief on those stories, written for veterans, builders, and operators who care more about execution than ideology.
1. Load Came Roaring Back
For years, planners assumed demand was basically flat. That world is officially gone.
Grid Strategies looked across the country and found that in just four years, the five-year forecast for power demand growth increased by a factor of six, driven heavily by data centers and new industrial load. (Grid Strategies)
Texas shows how fast this can move. ERCOT is facing more than 230 gigawatts of large-load interconnection requests in 2025, up from about 63 gigawatts at the end of 2024, with over 70 percent coming from data centers. (Chron)
That is not a forecast problem. That is a force-planning problem.
Operator takeaway: If you are in transmission, generation, or large-load siting, assume higher demand is the new baseline. The question is not whether load grows, it is whether we grow the right mix of capacity and flexibility in time.
2. Data Centers vs The Grid
AI and cloud are no longer abstract “tech trends.” They are steel, concrete, and megawatts.
Industry estimates say data centers alone could represent close to 10 percent of U.S. load by 2029, depending on how fast the buildout actually happens. (Grid Strategies)
In places like Texas and Virginia, communities are already pushing back on water use, land use, and rising power bills. One recent report counted tens of billions in data center projects stalled or cancelled after local opposition and cost concerns. (The Guardian)
So we have a tension. The same infrastructure that powers AI advantage can also strain local grids and trust, if it is done badly.
Operator takeaway: Veterans and builders are uniquely positioned here. Someone has to design large-load projects that behave like good citizens, not bullies. That means flexible load, on-site resources where it pencils, and early engagement with communities instead of legal fights at the end.
3. Big Loads are Getting a Rulebook
For a long time, interconnecting load was treated like a local utility problem. That made sense when a new facility meant a few megawatts and a slow ramp.
AI data centers broke that model.
By late 2025, DOE basically signaled, this is now a national priority. They pushed FERC to move on large-load interconnection procedures, explicitly tied to data centers and U.S. competitiveness.
rapidly accelerate the interconnection of large loads, including data centers (DOE)
The DOE’s October 23, 2025 letter frames it as urgent and argues that large loads connecting directly to the interstate transmission system belongs inside FERC’s jurisdiction. FERC followed with an ANOPR process in Docket RM26-4-000, and even extended the comment period, which tells you this is real and contested. (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)
At the same time, NERC started treating large loads as a reliability issue, not a curiosity. Their Level 2 Alert points to multiple events in 2024 and 2025 where 1,000+ MW of unexpected large-load reductions occurred, and calls for better interconnection processes, modeling, and operational communication. (NERC)
Operator takeaway: This is the beginning of a new era where data centers and other big loads do not just “show up,” they get studied, modeled, scheduled, and held to standards that protect everybody else on the system. If you’re building, siting, financing, or operating, you need to track this like you’d track a new theater-wide ROE.
What to watch next:
FERC’s Large Loads ANOPR, RM26-4-000, where the rules will start taking shape. (FERC)
DOE’s push for co-located load + generation interconnection requests, which could change timelines and cost allocation. (DOE)
NERC’s Large Loads recommendations and action plan, especially around dynamic modeling and operations. (NERC)
4. OBBB and the New Tax Clock
On July 4, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which “significantly modifies certain energy tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” (Sidley)
Law firms and tax advisors spent the back half of the year unpacking what that really means. In plain language:
Some clean energy tax credits now terminate earlier or have shorter windows.
Several incentives, like commercial building efficiency and vehicle credits, cut off for projects that begin after specific dates in 2025 or 2026. (IRS)
New “prohibited foreign entity” rules and stricter “beginning of construction” tests make it harder to qualify with loose planning or paper progress. (K&L)
One tax summary put it cleanly: OBBB “terminates or limits the duration of energy tax incentives” and replaces some flexibility with harder edges and new conditions. (K&L)
In the field, developers translated that as a simple message. The clock is ticking. Get shovels in the ground and keep ‘em moving or lose value.
Operator takeaway: If you are anywhere near project finance, development, or EPC, this is not a legal footnote. It is your schedule. Veterans who are used to operating inside hard timelines can be the adults in the room who say, “Here is what we can realistically start and finish under these rules,” instead of promising everything and missing the window.
5. Wind, Courts, and Policy Whiplash
On his first day back in office, President Trump ordered a freeze on new federal leasing and permits for wind projects on public lands and waters. That pause hit offshore wind in particular, disrupting projects like the Empire Wind development near New York. (Reuters)
In December, a federal judge in Massachusetts struck the order down. The court called the freeze “arbitrary and capricious” and contrary to law because agencies did not provide a reasoned explanation for reversing long-standing support for wind permitting. (AP News)
We’re building critical infrastructure and unforced errors like this aren’t helping us execute effectively.
This is not just a blue-state fight. Wind projects are tied to shipyards, steel, port jobs, and grid reliability in coastal states that rely on imports when the system is tight.
Operator takeaway: Policy can swing fast. Courts can swing it back. If your business depends on federal permits, you cannot assume continuity. Build redundancy into your plans. Keep relationships alive in multiple regions and technologies so one executive action does not strand your entire pipeline.
6. Texas as the Test Case
Texas may be the most useful test bed in the country right now.
According to data shared with Reuters, ERCOT is on track in 2025 to generate more electricity from solar than from coal for the first time, with solar providing about 14 percent of the mix and coal around 13 percent. Solar output is up more than 40 percent year over year, even as coal ticked up. (Reuters)
At the same time, AI-driven load growth and industrial expansion are piling into the same grid. (Chron)
So in one region you have:
Rapid buildout of solar and batteries.
Strong remaining gas fleet and fuel infrastructure.
Stressed transmission and rapid-fire load requests.
A political environment focused on reliability and cost.
If you want to know whether “all of the above” can work under pressure, watch Texas.
One reason Texas matters is it’s not unique. It’s early. Variations of this same story are playing out across PJM, MISO, CAISO, and ISO-NE, with different market rules and different bottlenecks, but the same core constraint: can we build fast enough to keep power reliable and affordable.
Operator takeaway: Veterans and operators should treat ERCOT like a live-fire training lane. Watch how they handle interconnection reform, new large-load tariffs, and capacity additions. The lessons will not stay in Texas. Other regions will copy the parts that work.
7. Follow the Money
For all the turbulence, global capital did not walk away.
BloombergNEF reports that global energy transition investment hit 2.1 trillion dollars in 2024, an 11 percent jump and a new record.
Most of that money went into renewables, grids, storage, and electrified transport. (BloombergNEF)
In other words, we are building faster than ever.
Operator takeaway: From a Project Vanguard lens, this is a hiring and execution stat. Someone has to design, build, maintain, and protect all of this new infrastructure. Veterans who can manage risk, lead teams, and communicate across civil, grid, and community lines are not a “nice to have.” They are critical path.
Final Thoughts
If you strip away the headlines, 2025 told a simple story.
Demand is rising faster than most planners expected. Federal policy just made the tax credit game more time-boxed and more complex. Courts reminded everyone that executive power has limits. Texas quietly proved that they are an all of the above state and can scale solar and storage at speed while still wrestling with real tradeoffs.
For veterans, builders, and operators, the message is clear. Energy security is national security, now feels real to more folks rather than my personal slogan. The country needs people who can read the terrain, work inside hard constraints, and still find ways to deliver reliable power at a fair price.
Over the next year, I will keep featuring the people on the ground who are doing that work, from project siting and grid operations to policy and finance.
If you are in the fight already, reply with what you are seeing from your lane. If you are considering a move into energy, especially from the military, subscribe and share this brief with someone who needs a clear picture of the road ahead.